Georgia Southern

Conference:	SB
Expected RPI:	140.0
Current RPI:	140
Expected SOS:	236
Current SOS:	236
Current Record:	19-12
Expected Record:	19-12
Current Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Conf Record:	12-8
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-5
Current OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC Record:	7-4
Expected OOC RPI:	123
Expected OOC SOS:	267

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
19-12	140.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Georgia Southern.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Wake Forest (160.0)	ACC	A	83-85	W	100%
11-13	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	H	77-53	W	100%
11-20	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	N	73-74	W	100%
11-21	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	N	78-75	W	100%
11-22	Towson (153.0)	CAA	N	70-67	L	0%
11-25	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	A	62-57	L	0%
12-9	Savannah St. (197.0)	MEAC	H	102-91	W	100%
12-12	George Mason (201.0)	A10	A	51-74	W	100%
12-16	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	A	55-53	L	0%
12-19	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	A	69-78	W	100%
12-22	East Tennessee St. (93.0)	SC	A	79-59	L	0%
12-29	Troy (194.0)	SB	A	80-86	W	100%
12-31	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	A	69-67	L	0%
1-4	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	H	80-49	W	100%
1-6	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	H	72-69	W	100%
1-11	Coastal Carolina (246.0)	SB	A	66-77	W	100%
1-13	Appalachian St. (250.0)	SB	A	59-60	W	100%
1-20	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	A	83-66	L	0%
1-25	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	H	61-62	L	0%
1-27	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	H	74-59	W	100%
2-1	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	A	61-67	W	100%
2-3	Arkansas St. (291.0)	SB	A	91-89	L	0%
2-8	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	H	64-66	L	0%
2-10	Louisiana Lafayette (63.0)	SB	H	91-102	L	0%
2-16	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	H	85-80	W	100%
2-22	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	A	83-63	L	0%
2-24	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	A	77-81	W	100%
3-1	South Alabama (270.0)	SB	H	81-74	W	100%
3-3	Troy (194.0)	SB	H	89-83	W	100%
3-9	Louisiana Monroe (219.0)	SB	N	63-55	W	100%
3-10	Georgia St. (120.0)	SB	N	73-67	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Georgia Southern's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Georgia Southern's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Georgia Southern.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Georgia Southern	SB	26.41	26.41	64.63	64.63	7.72	7.72
Georgia St.	SB	5.71	5.71	68.97	68.97	2.16	2.16
Troy	SB	4.12	4.12	48.28	48.28	-0.14	-0.14
UT Arlington	SB	4.10	4.10	61.29	61.29	0.93	0.93
Louisiana Monroe	SB	4.09	4.09	46.15	46.15	-0.31	-0.31
Arkansas St.	SB	4.02	4.02	28.57	28.57	-1.72	-1.72
Little Rock	SB	4.02	4.02	21.43	21.43	-2.30	-2.30
Texas St.	SB	4.02	4.02	41.38	41.38	-0.69	-0.69
South Alabama	SB	4.02	4.02	39.29	39.29	-0.86	-0.86
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	3.28	3.28	32.00	32.00	-1.18	-1.18
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	2.61	2.61	80.00	80.00	1.57	1.57
Appalachian St.	SB	2.56	2.56	43.33	43.33	-0.34	-0.34
Coastal Carolina	SB	2.53	2.53	39.29	39.29	-0.54	-0.54
UMKC	WAC	1.73	1.73	28.57	28.57	-0.74	-0.74
Bradley	MVC	1.72	1.72	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
East Tennessee St.	SC	1.69	1.69	70.97	70.97	0.71	0.71
Savannah St.	MEAC	1.66	1.66	44.83	44.83	-0.17	-0.17
Missouri St.	MVC	1.66	1.66	54.84	54.84	0.16	0.16
Wake Forest	ACC	1.64	1.64	36.67	36.67	-0.44	-0.44
George Mason	A10	1.61	1.61	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.61	1.61	29.63	29.63	-0.66	-0.66
Towson	CAA	1.61	1.61	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.28	0.28	43.33	43.33	-0.04	-0.04
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.26	0.26	65.62	65.62	0.08	0.08
Utah Valley	WAC	0.23	0.23	65.52	65.52	0.07	0.07
Seattle	WAC	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.20	0.20	3.33	3.33	-0.19	-0.19
Rice	CUSA	0.18	0.18	17.24	17.24	-0.12	-0.12
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	83.33	83.33	0.12	0.12
Evansville	MVC	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.15	0.15	84.38	84.38	0.11	0.11
Drake	MVC	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.15	0.15	25.81	25.81	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.15	0.15	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Massachusetts	A10	0.15	0.15	39.39	39.39	-0.03	-0.03
Delaware	CAA	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.13	0.13	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho	BSky	0.12	0.12	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
Lamar	Slnd	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Stetson	ASun	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Texas Tech	B12	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Wichita St.	Amer	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.11	0.11	32.14	32.14	-0.04	-0.04
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.11	0.11	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
La Salle	A10	0.11	0.11	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
UTSA	CUSA	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.10	0.10	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.10	0.10	77.42	77.42	0.06	0.06
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Dayton	A10	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Central Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville	ASun	0.09	0.09	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
USC Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.04	-0.04
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.08	0.08	31.25	31.25	-0.03	-0.03
Mercer	SC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Montana	BSky	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
UCLA	P12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
SMU	Amer	0.06	0.06	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.35	32.35	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
FIU	CUSA	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Memphis	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.05	0.05
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.77	30.77	-0.02	-0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	BE	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
George Washington	A10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Iona	MAAC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Dakota	Sum	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.02	0.02	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01